Could he have been right at the outset? Marks and Spencer's Stuart Rose once laughed at suggestions that his competitor's poor showing in quarter sales results was down to bad weather. This week, however, on releasing slower 2007 Q2 figures the widely declared saviour of the British commercial institution was slow to put forward weather as a sole contributing factor but did admit on BBC Radio's Today programme that he was quite happy to be proved wrong on the famous statement 'Weather is for wimps'.
But was he correct in conceding defeat? Especially when there are clearly other more obvious reasons and even figures to suggest that, indeed, weather really is for weak business models. The Dublin City Businesses Association are trumpeting 5% increase in footfall on July of last year while shopping centres on the edges of the capital are celebrating up to 18% more visitors than the same period of 2006. Their CEO, Tom Coffey, even went as far as to tell reporters that "Rain is good for business. You can't go the beach but you can't lock yourself up at home either".
So why is it a valid reason for businesses to blame 'unseasonable weather' for bad results? I thought that the one thing about living in the UK or Ireland is that there is no such thing as 'seasonal'. We live in the climate that coined the phrase 'make hay while the sun shines'. And, in contrast to what some UK high street stores are reporting, Mr Coffey's association even suggests that the Spring sun kept shoppers away and now they are returning in their droves and are likely to continue as autumn approaches and people start buying to 'layer-up' against the elements.
Retailers should be more intelligent. The ice-cream machine should not be rolled and shelves should not be cleared of soups and firelighters in favour of BBQ charcoal and sun cream based on the calendar but on what is actually happening outside the window. Granted they are not the most accurate, but there is anecdotal evidence to suggest that the astute business person is signed up to weather alerts so that they can stock sandals or wellies. Isn't it obvious that flexibility is key to success in changeable environments? Being prepared is the mantra of every good scout and shopkeeper!
But in this toddler society and financial market 'why' is the eternal question - up is the only permitted direction so a plateau or drift downwards sets panic alarms. So if it’s not the weather, what is it? It’s the economy, stupid!
Higher interest rates scare borrowers and entice savers. This may satisfy banks but it does nothing to warm the commercial sector that thrives on whatever category of an individual's expenditure they can garner; from capital to discretionary. This is being squeezed and so priorities change; mortgages are paid or regular saving schemes are started. The level of credit in both the UK and Ireland is also a reason for these rates to encourage those living beyond their means of starting a smooth descent to a soft landing rather than a crash and burn which, judging be the levels of debt, is in no-ones interest.
Inflation is another possible reason; The UK is at an almost decade high 2.7%; 0.2% above Government targets and prompting an unprecedented explanation letter from The Bank of England's Mervin King to the then Chancellor for the Exchequer, Gordon Brown - a safety net put in place when Brown awarded independence in the setting of rates as part of Labours rise to power in 1997. While Ireland has a long way to reach the incredible 7% highs of the start of this decade, the line-graph is definitely point northwards. This combined with the failure of income to keep pace has resulted in the in/out scales tipping unfavourably with a need to throw out dead weight in an attempt to rebalance. Tales of big bonuses wallpapers over the reality, how many within in the square mile of the city, let alone of the country, benefited from the Stg£8.8billion in end of year bonuses.
So don't be a wuss Stuart, weather is an excuse or a cover-up that the future isn’t as ‘Rosey’ as the golden days of times past.
But was he correct in conceding defeat? Especially when there are clearly other more obvious reasons and even figures to suggest that, indeed, weather really is for weak business models. The Dublin City Businesses Association are trumpeting 5% increase in footfall on July of last year while shopping centres on the edges of the capital are celebrating up to 18% more visitors than the same period of 2006. Their CEO, Tom Coffey, even went as far as to tell reporters that "Rain is good for business. You can't go the beach but you can't lock yourself up at home either".
So why is it a valid reason for businesses to blame 'unseasonable weather' for bad results? I thought that the one thing about living in the UK or Ireland is that there is no such thing as 'seasonal'. We live in the climate that coined the phrase 'make hay while the sun shines'. And, in contrast to what some UK high street stores are reporting, Mr Coffey's association even suggests that the Spring sun kept shoppers away and now they are returning in their droves and are likely to continue as autumn approaches and people start buying to 'layer-up' against the elements.
Retailers should be more intelligent. The ice-cream machine should not be rolled and shelves should not be cleared of soups and firelighters in favour of BBQ charcoal and sun cream based on the calendar but on what is actually happening outside the window. Granted they are not the most accurate, but there is anecdotal evidence to suggest that the astute business person is signed up to weather alerts so that they can stock sandals or wellies. Isn't it obvious that flexibility is key to success in changeable environments? Being prepared is the mantra of every good scout and shopkeeper!
But in this toddler society and financial market 'why' is the eternal question - up is the only permitted direction so a plateau or drift downwards sets panic alarms. So if it’s not the weather, what is it? It’s the economy, stupid!
Higher interest rates scare borrowers and entice savers. This may satisfy banks but it does nothing to warm the commercial sector that thrives on whatever category of an individual's expenditure they can garner; from capital to discretionary. This is being squeezed and so priorities change; mortgages are paid or regular saving schemes are started. The level of credit in both the UK and Ireland is also a reason for these rates to encourage those living beyond their means of starting a smooth descent to a soft landing rather than a crash and burn which, judging be the levels of debt, is in no-ones interest.
Inflation is another possible reason; The UK is at an almost decade high 2.7%; 0.2% above Government targets and prompting an unprecedented explanation letter from The Bank of England's Mervin King to the then Chancellor for the Exchequer, Gordon Brown - a safety net put in place when Brown awarded independence in the setting of rates as part of Labours rise to power in 1997. While Ireland has a long way to reach the incredible 7% highs of the start of this decade, the line-graph is definitely point northwards. This combined with the failure of income to keep pace has resulted in the in/out scales tipping unfavourably with a need to throw out dead weight in an attempt to rebalance. Tales of big bonuses wallpapers over the reality, how many within in the square mile of the city, let alone of the country, benefited from the Stg£8.8billion in end of year bonuses.
So don't be a wuss Stuart, weather is an excuse or a cover-up that the future isn’t as ‘Rosey’ as the golden days of times past.
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